Forecasting Tourism Demand of Tourist Attractions During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, forecasting the tourism demand of tourist attractions is facing unprecedented difficulties given the lack of understanding about the pandemic impacts and the unavailability of post-pandemic data for generating forecasts. In this study, two strategies are proposed to improve forecasting performance and address the above difficulties. First, a novel COVID-19 impact indicator is built to reflect the impacts of the pandemic on tourism demand. Second, an effective forecast aggregation algorithm is developed to efficiently generate forecasts despite limited post-pandemic data availability. To validate the effectiveness of these strategies, an empirical study using real data from a tourist attraction is conducted, and results demonstrate that these strategies improve the overall forecast performance, including forecast accuracy and stability.