Analysis of Safety Performance of Tracking Services Based on Simulation of Unmitigated UAS Conflicts

Tracking systems are a core component of future UAS Traffic Management (UTM) systems. This study aims at providing technical fundamentals for supporting the robust standardization of UTM tracking systems. To evaluate the impact of tracking system performances on the effectiveness of centralized conflict detection, we propose a simulation-based quantitative method. Monte Carlo simulations were used to acquire data for tracking systems behaviors under various operational uncertainties for a pair-wise flight encounter scenario. Sensitivity analysis of safety performance in managing Well-Clear Violations (WCVs) were performed with respect to performance parameters (transmission availability, UAS-side and ground-side position update rates and transmission latency) for a cooperative tracking system. It was found that extrapolation techniques help to mitigate long intervals between successive UA position updates. UAS position and velocity update rates over 1 Hz are recommended.