The Climate and Land-Use Changes Impact on Water Availability for Hydropower Plants in Indonesia

Hydropower plants will dominate the Indonesian power sector to achieve the national renewable energy target. Sulawesi, one of the islands in Indonesia, has the largest hydropower potential and is expected to be the most extensive system for developing hydropower plants. Due to the increasing electricity demand, by 2030, the capacity sourced from hydropower plants is expected to increase by 1001 MW compared to its capacity in 2020. However, this planning has not considered assessing the impact of climate and land-use changes on these hydropower plants. This study analyzes the water availability of hydropower plants in Sulawesi by considering those two aspects. Eight hydropower plants have been observed with a total capacity of 807.9 MW. We evaluated temperature, precipitation, and land cover data to measure evapotranspiration, infiltration, and water discharge. There are two scenarios: hydropower potential calculation based on land use in 2000 and 2020. The result shows that four of eight planned hydropower plants (Sawangan, Poso, Konawe, and Malea) will generate electricity at the designed capacity. The remaining four, i.e., Bakaru 2, Buttu Batu, Poso, and Watunohu hydropower plants, might not reach the designed capacity. Based on this research, analyzing climate change and land use in hydropower plant designs in Indonesia is necessary because it affects water availability. The central and local governments need comprehensive planning by considering the climate and land use changes to operate the long-term hydropower plants. However, future research may analyze hydropower plants' financial and social impact in Indonesia, which is not included in this research.