Development of a Model Predicting Cardiac Events in Heart Failure Patients with Decreased Renal Function: a Retrospective Study

Inappropriate and multiple medications affect the prognosis of patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). However, in ADHF patients with decreased renal function, there have been no reports on prognostic factors, including medication data, or models for predicting cardiac events. To develop a model including medication data to predict cardiac events in ADHF patients with decreased renal function. This retrospective cohort study included 443 first-time admitted ADHF patients with decreased renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at discharge) in the Showa University Fujigaoka Hospital. The primary outcome was cardiac events within one year after discharge, defined as the composite of HF readmission, HF mortality, and cardiovascular mortality. The model for predicting cardiac events was developed using predictive factors extracted by multivariable analysis. The cardiac events curves were visualized using the Kaplan–Meier method and estimated using a log-rank test. The incidence of cardiac events within one year after discharge was 20.1