First Population Estimates of Two Critically Endangered Frogs from an Isolated Forest Plateau in Madagascar

In the largely deforested areas of Madagascar, small forest fragments remain as last refuges for amphibian diversity. Isolated populations of the Critically Endangered Anodonthyla vallani and Anilany helenae persist in the fragmented forest of Ambohitantely but little information is available to inform their management and any conservation interventions. We generated estimates of population size and occupancy for both species in the largest fragment of Ambohitantely Special Reserve using acoustic survey data collected from 84 sites along 12 transects in December 2018. We used a single-season occupancy model to estimate detection and occupancy and a Royal-Nichols model to estimate abundance and population size. Anilany helenae and A. vallani had high occupancy rates (80 and 93%, respectively) whereas their detection rates differed (34 and 55%, respectively). Abundance and occupancy were best explained by vegetation structure whereas detection was influenced by time of survey and rainfall. For our sampled sites the estimated population sizes of males were 855 for A. vallani, with an estimated density of 52 individuals/ha, and 388 for A. helenae, with an estimated population density of 23 individuals/ha. Given their relatively low densities, small population sizes and restricted ranges, any further habitat loss could have drastic consequences for these populations. Our results provide guidance for future species-focused studies, and can inform conservation management at the local scale. Our work will help to improve species monitoring in Madagascar and elsewhere, especially for range-restricted non-charismatic amphibians.