Forest treatment effects on wood production in ponderosa pine

•Environmental and biological explanatories were used to predict annual pine BAI.•A model was developed to elucidate topographic differences in single vs. multiple year droughts.•SPEI, growing season length, and tree vigor were significant explanatories.•The model was then used to elucidate treatment effectiveness in maintaining or promoting growth.•A single forest treatment of thinning or prescribed fire promoted resiliency during drought.