System dynamics applied to second generation biofuel in Brazil: A circular economy approach

Scarcity of resources and risks to the energy supply have motivated a search for sustainable ways to produce alternative fuels using the concept of the circular economy, with the hope of meeting the sustainable development goals (SGD). Waste cooking oil (WCO) is a secondary resource in the production of second-generation (2G) biofuel and is an alternative sustainable fuel that can provide both economic and environmental benefits. This research investigated the use of WCO in biofuel production using the approach of system dynamics (SD) to analyze three scenarios over the period of time from 2020 to 2030. These three scenarios were baseline, nonsustainable and sustainable. The analysis simulated the three scenarios, and created a visualization of the circular supply chain of WCO in Brazil, and created a model that gave an overview of the situation. The analysis revealed that biofuels made from WCO are sensitive to the rates of disposal, recycling, water pollution, CO2 emissions and biofuel production in the three scenarios. The finding suggests that the baseline and nonsustainable scenarios are similar, and that the sustainable scenario could result in significant benefits by increasing the production of biodiesel production from WCO, and reducing the environmental impact.