Modelling potential habitat suitability for critically endangered Arabian leopards (Panthera pardus nimr) across their historical range in Saudi Arabia

Camera trapping can detect and monitor rare species in landscapes spanning thousands of square kilometres but placement of cameras in areas where the animals most likely occur will increase detection success. This vital information is lacking for the critically endangered Arabian leopard (Panthera pardus nimr) that has undergone a 90% decline across its range in Saudi Arabia. We aimed to identify suitable Arabian leopard habitat and potential population capacity in Saudi Arabia using data from leopards living in ecologically analogous habitat in South Africa and Oman. We developed a resource selection function (RSF) from 14 leopards’ GPS data in the Cederberg, South Africa, and validated the model using three leopards in the Little Karoo, and two Arabian leopards in Oman. We then projected the model to the historical range of Arabian leopards in Saudi Arabia to estimate likely leopard locations and potential population sizes based on home range metrics. The RSF successfully discriminated between used and available locations (specificity = 96.7%) and had high predictive ability (Rho > 0.9). Leopards selectively used areas away from human settlements and roads, with high enhanced vegetation index, and intermediate slopes and elevations. Saudi Arabia could theoretically host 4 distinct populations totalling 162–362 Arabian leopard females, depending on home range size. Camera traps deployed in the south-western mountains of Saudi Arabia may be most likely to detect remnant populations of Arabian leopards. Further research is needed into the local abundance of prey species and human activity to ensure the persistence of suitable leopard ranges and inform conservation actions.