Then simulation of earthquake sequence based on time-dependent seismicity model

The simulation of seismic time series plays an important role in seismic hazard analysis and earthquake disaster prediction, while the seismicity model is an important basis of simulating seismic series. In this paper, taking the time-dependent seismicity model as the target model, we systematically summarize the theories and methods of the existing time-dependent seismicity model, study the calculation methods of the probability of earthquake occurrence in the three cases where the occurrence time of the latest earthquake on a fault (source) is known, unknown, and the known open interval of earthquake history, and analyze the influence of the uncertainty of earthquake recurrence interval on the probability of occurrence of time-dependent earthquakes. We also research the physical principle of quasi-periodic occurrence of characteristic earthquakes based on Brownian model, and establish the simulation method of time series of time-dependent earthquakes. The results show that the probability of earthquake occurrence calculated by the time-dependent seismicity model is significantly higher than that calculated by the Poisson model when the earthquake has a long lapse time; the probability of earthquake occurrence with the known opening time of earthquake history is higher than that calculated with the unknown lapse time of earthquake. The smaller the uncertainty of earthquake recurrence interval is, the more periodic the simulated time series of earthquakes will be. The results of our study can improve the long-term prediction level of earthquake rupture forecasts, and the simulated time series of earthquakes with the characteristics of time-dependent can be used in the fields of earthquake prediction, the probability seismic hazard analysis and earthquake disaster prediction, etc.