Projected Climate in Coffee-Based Farming Systems: Implications for Crop Suitability in Uganda

Coffee-based farming systems (CBFS) support smallholder farmers through mainly coffee growing with integration of other food crops and livestock. Climate change is expected to ravage crop suitability in several agroecological zones, posing a threat to national earnings and livelihoods. However, previous studies have mainly considered crop-specific analyses rather than the major crops in a farming system. This study illustrates variations in climatic suitability of major crops grown in Uganda’s Arabica and Robusta CBFS at disaggregated altitudes. Climate data (1980–2009) was projected for 2010–2039 (near-term future) for five climate scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways—RCP 8.5 and 4.5 using twenty-nine global climate models (GCMs) based on the delta method. Climatic suitability of coffee, banana, maize, and beans was assessed using EcoCrop model. Rainfall and temperature changes are expected during long rains and second-dry seasons, with higher rainfall increments during short rains. Minimum temperatures are likely to increase in low altitudes under ensemble-mean, hot-wet, and hot-dry scenarios. Crop suitability improvements (> 5% area) are expected in mid to high altitudes under cool-wet and hot-wet, mainly for RCP 4.5 while western Uganda Arabica CBFS are unlikely to experience crop suitability changes. Suitable area for East African banana and beans is likely to increase utmost 44.7%, and expected to decline to marginal utmost 64% (coffee and banana) and 21.2% (maize) in central Robusta and eastern Arabica CBFS under ensemble-mean, cool-dry, and hot-dry scenarios. Plantain and dessert banana are likely to become unsuitable within Robusta and high-altitude Arabica CBFS. This study recommends identification and use of system appropriate climate-smart adaptation strategies to mitigate future crop-climate vulnerabilities within CBFS.