The effect of weighting hydrological projections based on the robustness of hydrological models under a changing climate

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies(2022)

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摘要
•The robustness of hydrological models under changing climate conditions is tested.•Traditional and purpose-specific metrics are used to assign weights to the models.•The projection uncertainty changes depending on the metrics used for weighting.•The magnitude of the change in uncertainty depends on the analysed variable.•The methodology has the potential of increasing the reliability of the projections.
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关键词
Uncertainty,Climate change impacts,Model weighting,Differential split sampling test, Bayesian model averaging
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