Future urban growth scenarios and ecosystem services valuation in the Tepic-Xalisco Metropolitan area, Mexico

Currently, there is a need to establish new territorial planning instruments focused on sustainable development. The simulation of spatial scenarios is an essential tool to evaluate different alternatives for urban planning. The objective of this work was to explore future urban growth through the analysis of landscape patterns and the economic quantification of ecosystem services of three prospective scenarios, simulated towards the horizon year 2045. Each scenario was formulated, based on the application of different socioeconomic, political and environmental development strategies whose actions have a direct impact on land-use changes. The starting point was an urban growth simulation model, based on Cellular Automata with Markov Chains (CA-Markov), developed from previous work for the study area. Three scenarios were constructed with the intention of showing the spatial characteristics of three different alternatives of the evolution of future urban growth and through them, quantify the economic value and the consequences that would occur in the territory due to the effect of the different decisions taken. Landscape metrics were applied to detect the spatial processes and patterns of urban growth for each of the simulated scenarios and, finally, the costs of ecosystem services associated with the loss or gain of territory (that each of the different land covers and land uses would contribute) were quantified. The three simulated scenarios revealed that the Tepic-Xalisco Metropolitan Zone (MZ) will be in a process of urban coalescence in the next 30 years; and that the path designed to move towards an Industrialisation Scenario (ES2-IN) estimates economic losses of more than $31 million dollars per year for the ecosystem services associated particularly with the reduction of forest cover.