Climate Change in Poland—Summary, Discussion and Conclusion

The book presents the results of climate research throughout Poland in the pre-instrumental period (using proxy data), instrumental period (using mainly statistical methods, based on data from weather stations and grid data) and projected changes (using regional climate models). A total of 1100 years are covered, i.e. the period from about 1000 to 2100. The majority of examined climate elements, meteorological phenomena and indices show statistically significant changes at least in certain areas of Poland and at certain seasons of the year. Moreover, many elements demonstrate significant year-to-year variability and temporal fluctuations. Changes of particular climate elements are interrelated. The primary causative factors are both anthropogenic changes (greenhouse gas emissions resulting in increased greenhouse effect and global warming, local sources of air pollution) and natural changes: (1) circulation factors: changes in the intensity and location of atmospheric activity centres, changes in the frequency of advection from a specific sector, and the frequency of cyclonic and anticyclonic systems over Poland and (2) radiation factors (changes in values of global solar radiation, sunshine duration and cloudiness). These changes, especially visible after the 1980s, affect the trends of most climatic elements, meteorological phenomena and indices. The effects of these changes, both positive and negative, are evident in people’s daily lives (e.g. decrease in bioclimatic cold stress, increase in bioclimatic heat stress, changes in conditions for recreation and sport) and economy (e.g. improvement of thermal agricultural conditions, changes in energy demand for heating buildings, air conditioning and refrigeration). A better understanding of the relationships of trends of the different climatic elements should be the aim of further research into the climate of Poland.