Impact of Geotechnical Uncertainty on the Preliminary Design of Monopiles Supporting Offshore Wind Turbines

The growing demand for clean renewable energy sources and the lack of suitable nearshore sites are moving the offshore wind industry toward developing larger wind turbines in deeper water locations further offshore. This is adding significant uncertainty to the geotechnical design of monopiles used as foundations for these systems. Soil testing becomes more challenging, rigid monopile behavior is less certain, and design methods are being applied outside the bounds of the datasets from which they were originally derived. This paper examines the potential impact of certain elements of geotechnical uncertainty on monotonic load-displacement behavior and design system natural frequency of an example monopile-supported offshore wind turbine (OWT). Geotechnical uncertainty is considered in terms of spatial variability in soil properties derived from cone penetration tests (CPT), parameter transformation uncertainty using the rigidity index, and design choice for subgrade reaction modeling. Results suggest that spatial variability in CPT properties exhibits limited impact on design load-displacement characteristics of monopiles as vertical spatial variability tends to be averaged out in the process to develop discrete soil reaction-lateral displacement (p-y) models. This highlights a potential issue whereby localized variations in soil properties may not be captured in certain models. Spatial variability in CPT data has a noticeable effect on predicted system frequency responses of OWTs employing a subgrade reaction model approach, and the influence of subgrade reaction model choice is significant. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of uncertainty in soil data, model transformation, and design model choice on resulting structural behavior for a subset of available design approaches. It should be noted that significant further uncertainty exists and a wide variety of alternative models can be used by designers, so the results should be interpreted qualitatively.