Modelling Potential Distribution of Snow Leopards in Pamir, Northern Pakistan: Implications for Human-Snow Leopard Conflicts

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is a cryptic and rare big cat inhabiting Asia's remote and harsh elevated areas. Its population has decreased across the globe for various reasons, including human-snow leopard conflicts (HSCs). Understanding the snow leopard's distribution range and habitat interactions with human/livestock is essential for understanding the ecological context in which HSCs occur and thus gives insights into how to mitigate HSCs. In this study, a MaxEnt model predicted the snow leopard's potential distribution and analyzed the land use/cover to determine the habitat interactions of snow leopards with human/livestock in Karakoram-Pamir, northern Pakistan. The results indicated an excellent model performance for predicting the species' potential distribution. The variables with higher contributions to the model were the mean diurnal temperature range (51.7%), annual temperature range (18.5%), aspect (14.2%), and land cover (6.9%). The model predicted approximately 10% of the study area as a highly suitable habitat for snow leopards. Appropriate areas included those at an altitude ranging from 2721 to 4825 m, with a mean elevation of 3796.9 +/- 432 m, overlapping between suitable snow leopard habitats and human presence. The human encroachment (human settlements and agriculture) in suitable snow leopard habitat increased by 115% between 2008 and 2018. Increasing encroachment and a clear overlap between snow leopard suitable habitat and human activities, signs of growing competition between wildlife and human/livestock for limited rangeland resources, may have contributed to increasing HSCs. A sound land use plan is needed to minimize overlaps between suitable snow leopard habitat and human presence to mitigate HSCs in the long run.