Does fine scale spatiotemporal variation in seed rain translate into plant population structure?

In mast-seeding species, strong annual variation in seed production is assumed to drive seed fate and ultimately plant recruitment. However, the effects of temporal variation in seed crops on spatial patterns of seed rain and recruitment are poorly understood, in part because of limited data on fine-scale spatial variation of seed deposition. To investigate how mast-seeding affects spatial variation in seed rain, we analysed a 15-year data set on seed rain and population dynamics in a montane old-growth forest (2 plots with 81 seed traps per ha), dominated by European beech Fagus sylvatica and, to a lesser degree, Norway spruce Picea abies and European silver fir Abies alba. Using geostatistical methods and point process modelling, we modeled 1) the relationship between annual seed crop and spatial heterogeneity of seed rain, 2) the temporal stability of seed rain hotspots and 3) the spatial relation of seed rain and recruitment into the population. The results illustrate the interaction between temporal and spatial variation in seed production and its consequences for population dynamics of mast-seeding trees. The signature of annual variation in seed rain fades with seedling mortality over time in all three focal species. For beech, the cumulative probability of seed arrival over the whole study period drives spatial seedling and sapling dispersion patterns - mediated by light competition with older trees; seedling density was most strongly reduced by sapling density, while saplings were most frequently found in areas of low adult density. Such decoupling of spatial processes across life history stages, combined with spatial heterogeneity may play a larger role in driving stand-level spatial dynamics than previously assumed.