The mediation effect of land surface temperature in the relationship between land use-cover change and energy consumption under seasonal variations

Increasing temperatures in urban areas have brought about a series of prevalent environmental and energy shortage problems. Many studies have focused on the relationship between land use-cover change and land surface temperature (LST), and the effect of LST on energy consumption. The objective of this study was to identify the relationship among land use-cover change, LST, and building electricity consumption from 1990 to 2018 in the city of Nanjing, China. This investigation used land cover data and satellite imagery to obtain the land use-cover change data and LST data for each study year, and the mediation effect analysis method was then employed to examine the effect of land use-cover change and LST on building electricity consumption during different seasons. The results revealed that from 1990 to 2018 in Nanjing, the area of arable land decreased significantly, while the area of urban, rural, residential, industrial, and mining land increased significantly. During this period, the LST of Nanjing increased considerably. This study also found that the LST mediates the relationship between land use-cover change and electricity consumption, and the indirect effect in summer is particularly significant. Furthermore, the results revealed that the direct effect of land use-cover change on electricity consumption is intriguingly stronger than the indirect effect. These major findings can help urban planners to reasonably arrange and use land in order to alleviate LST increases and electricity consumption.