Age, Employment and Labour Force Participation Outcomes in COVID-era South Africa

In this paper we use data from waves 1-5 of NIDS-CRAM to investigate labour market outcomes in 2020/1 for four age groups: youth (aged 18-24), prime-age adults (aged 25-39), middle-age adults (aged 40-54) and older adults (aged 55-64). We contrast outcomes just before and just after the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown (February and April 2020) with outcomes one year later (March 2021), and study transitions between the periods. We find that although the NIDS-CRAM employment-to-population ratio was near identical in February 2020 and March 2021 (56.4% versus 56.6%), there had been extensive churning between the two periods. By March 2021, 23% of the February 2020 employed had lost work and 30% of the non-employed had found work. Amidst these changes, youth experienced the largest employment-to-population ratio increase, while older adults suffered the largest decrease in employment and a decline in participation rates (changes not statistically significant).