Modeling the risk of low bone mass and osteoporosis as a function of urinary cadmium in U.S adults aged 50–79 years.

We developed an association model to estimate the risk of femoral neck low bone mass and osteoporosis from exposure to cadmium for women and men aged 50–79 in the U.S, as a function of the urinary cadmium (U–Cd) levels. We analyzed data from the NHANES 2005–2014 surveys and evaluated the relationship between U–Cd and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) using univariate and multivariate regression models with a combination of NHANES cycle, gender, age, smoking, race/ethnicity, height, body weight, body mass index, lean body mass, diabetes, kidney disease, physical activity, menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy, urinary lead, and prednisone intake as confounding variables. The regression coefficient between U–Cd and femoral neck BMD obtained with the best multivariate regression was used to develop an association model that can estimate the additional risk of low bone mass or osteoporosis in the population given a certain level of U–Cd. Results showed a linear relationship between U–Cd and BMD, conditional to body weight, where individuals with higher U–Cd had decreased BMD values. Our results do not support the hypothesis of a threshold for the effect of Cd on bone. Our model estimates that exposure to Cd results in an increase of 0.51 percentage points (CI95% 0.00, 0.92) of the population diagnosed with osteoporosis, compared to a theoretical absence of exposure. We estimate that 16% (CI95%: 0.00, 40%) of osteoporosis cases in the U.S. 50–79 aged population are a result of Cd exposure. This study presents the first continuous model estimating low bone mass and osteoporosis risk in the U.S. population given actual or potential changes in U–Cd levels. Our model will provide information to inform FDA's Closer to Zero initiative goal to reduce exposure to toxic elements.