Patience and Vaccination

Vaccination against COVID-19 and other diseases is a pressing public health issue. We hypothesize that a short-term orientation (impatience) – as it heavily discounts the future benefits of actions taken today – leads to lower rates of vaccination. Using a recently constructed, experimentally validated measure of patience, we document four results consistent with our hypothesis. First, patience alone explains a large share (21%) of the global variation in COVID-19 vaccinations across countries as of November 2021 (Study 1a; N = 76). An increase in patience of one S.D. is associated with 12 p.p. larger vaccination rates. Second, using duration models (Study 1b; 4,180 ≤ N ≤ 9,973), we demonstrate that more patient countries are quicker to reach high COVID-19 vaccination thresholds. Third, our results are not specific to the COVID-19 pandemic: in Study 2a, we show that beliefs regarding the safety and effectiveness of vaccination against swine influenza (H1N1) in 2009 are also well-explained by patience in a sample of sub-national regions of Europe (N regions = 138; N countries = 17). Fourth, in Study 2b, we show that our results are not specific to pandemics: patience also explains the global variation in infant vaccinations against 12 common diseases (N = 75).