Qualitative assessment of the probability of introduction and onward transmission of lumpy skin disease in Ukraine

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary disease affecting bovine animals, which may result in severe economic implications. Ukraine is considered particularly vulnerable to LSD due to its proximity to regions where the virus is circulating. In addition, its ecological and environmental parameters can sustain, in summer, the spread of the disease in case it entered the country. This qualitative risk assessment aimed to investigate the probability that LSD virus is introduced to Ukraine and, if introduced, what would be the probability of onward transmission in the country within the next year. The risk assessment followed the OIE import risk analysis for animals and animal products guidelines and was undertaken with the support of local experts via an expert elicitation workshop. A modified Delphi approach was used to gather experts inputs. The illegally traded cattle was the pathway considered to have the highest probability of LSD introduction; however the probability was estimated to be low. When assessing the probability of an animal being exposed to the virus and further onward transmission in Ukraine, the highest probability estimate was related to flying vectors (high probability). During the expert opinion workshop, the Delphi approach helped to increase the agreement between experts and to assess the uncertainty related to some of the probability estimates. Throughout the risk assessment, some data gaps were identified and highlighted. The lack of reliable data on animal movements and biosecurity in Ukraine were emphasized. Based on the elicited probability estimates, the local experts generated recommendations for risk management practices. To our knowledge, this is the first risk assessment performed on LSDV in Eastern Europe and the conceptual framework adopted can help other countries willing to do a risk assessment in a similar data scarce environment.