MODELLING OF THE LATE PLEISTOCENE CLIMATIC CHANGES IN THE BUKOVYNA AREA BASED ON QUANTITATIVE RECONSTRUCTION METHODOLOGIES AND PALYNOLOGICAL DATA FROM GEOARCHAEOLOGICAL SITES

Summary The paper presents quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions for the short-term phases within the main Late Pleistocene stages, based on the combined application to pollen data of two methods: informational-statistical (Klimanov et al., 1995) and ‘the best modern analogues’ (Guiot et al., 1989). The study area is Bukovyna where four geoarchaeological sites were palynologically studied and interpreted in palaeoclimatic sense. The standard errors for the calculated values are 1.3°C for mean annual temperatures, 1.6°C for mean July temperatures and 100 mm for annual precipitation rates. The results demonstrate cyclicity in climatic parameters changes through the Late Pleistocene and the large amplitudes of these changes. High-resolution sampling of late pleniglacial deposits has shown millennial- and even centennial-scale oscillations, which indicate the possibility of very drastic climatic events. Crucial changes resulted in environmental hazards, which affected the settlement patterns of Upper Paleolithic population. The amplitudes between cool and warm phases within the last interglacial (the analogue of the Holocene, the current interglacial) also were large and, thus, could cause climatic hazards. The reliable knowledge on the regular pattern of past climatic changes is crucially important for understanding of their nature and, thus, possible forecasting of climatological hazards.