Escape from the heat: thermal stratification in a well-mixed estuary and implications for fish species facing a changing climate

Climate change may cause organisms to seek thermal refuge from rising temperatures, either by shifting their ranges or seeking microrefugia within their existing ranges. We evaluate the potential for thermal stratification to provide refuge for two fish species in the San Francisco Estuary (Estuary): Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Walbaum, 1792) and Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus McAllister, 1963). We compiled water temperature data from multiple monitoring programs to evaluate spatial, daily, hourly, intra-annual, and inter-annual trends in stratification using generalized additive models. We used our models to predict the locations and periods of time that the bottom of the water column could function as thermal refuge for salmon and smelt. Periods in which the bottom was cooler than surface primarily occurred during the peak of summer and during the afternoons, with more prominent stratification during warmer years. Although the Estuary is often exceedingly warm for fish species and well-mixed overall, we identified potential thermal refugia in a long and deep terminal channel for Delta Smelt, and in the periods bordering summer for Chinook Salmon. Thermal stratification may increase as the climate warms, and pockets of cooler water at depth, though limited, may become more important for at-risk fishes in the future.