Understanding Climate Policy Projections: A Scoping Review of Energy-Economy Models in Canada

Energy-economy models play an increasingly important role in informing climate policy decisions, yet their results lack consistency in terms of projected greenhouse gas emissions and economic impacts. The paper employs a scoping review of the key improvements, knowledge gaps, and critiques of energy-economy models in the academic, public, private, and not-for-profit sectors in Canada over the past ten years. The three objectives are to (1) identify the key energy-economy modelling assessment criteria, (2) develop an inventory of energy-economy models assessed against the criteria in objective 1, and (3) discuss implications for modelling climate policies. Four criteria for assessing the ability of energy-economy models to evaluate climate policy impacts are identified: treatment of technology, microeconomic realism, macroeconomic realism, and policy representation. The assessment of 21 models against these criteria reveals similarities and differences across models. Models that share similarities in over-arching methodological approaches are also similar in the way they represent technologies, market heterogeneity, trade effects, different policy types, and energy equilibrium. Conversely, there are quite diverse approaches used in the representation of technological change, non-financial decision factors, financial or monetary features, and non-energy equilibrium. Model documentation does not often address how policy interaction is taken into account. Based on this assessment, implications for climate policy modelling and future research are discussed. • Climate policy projections vary across energy-economy models. • A scoping literature review compares energy-economy models in Canada's public and private sectors. • Four key criteria are identified for evaluating energy-economy models. • The review reveals similarities and differences across models. • Implications for climate policy modelling are identified.