Alert Level 2.5 is insufficient for suppression or elimination of COVID-19 community outbreak

Only ∼ 19% of simulations with a case detected eliminated the outbreak within 150 days of detection. All others had uncontrolled growth with Reff > 1. Furthermore, we find that Alert Level 2.5 would still be insufficient, even if augmented by improved contact tracing through widespread use of QR code scanning, Bluetooth tracking of close contacts and faster manual contact tracing. These contact tracing improvements slightly decreased Reff and the total number of cases at 150 days but had no statistically significant increase in the fraction of simulations with elimination in 150 days of detection or less.