Assessment of Socioeconomic Impacts, Emissions and Share Potential of the Sugar‐energy Sector in the Brazilian Electricity Matrix, in the Context of NDC, Applying a Bottom‐up Approach and Input–output Modeling

This work presents an assessment of sugar-energy sector expansion in Brazil, focusing on the growth of the bioelectricity supply and considering two scenarios. The first scenario, called the BASE scenario, was based on the projection made by the Brazilian Energy Research Company (EPE) for the Brazilian commitments at the Paris agreement, presented during the COP 21 (Conference of the parties) conference and ratified in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), assuming that all the electricity from biomass could be produced by the sugarcane sector. The second is a scenario considering a higher share of the sugar-energy sector in the Brazilian electricity matrix, called the BIO scenario. The investment needed for each scenario was evaluated, using a bottom-up approach and assuming currently available technologies. The results showed that the BIO scenario could produce 55 TWh of surplus electricity more than the BASE scenario, boosting the share of the sugar-energy sector in the electricity matrix, reaching a total of almost 130 TWh per year and requiring an additional investment that was 39% higher than in the BASE scenario. As the sugarcane surplus electricity could replace electricity from natural gas power plants, the BIO scenario could reduce emissions by 18.4 MtCO(2)eq in comparison with the BASE scenario. Through the input-output model used to evaluate the socioeconomic impacts, it was observed that the BIO scenario could add 919 000 job positions and cause a positive impact to the gross domestic product (GDP) of US$ 28.8 billion, which corresponds, in comparison with the BASE scenario, to adding 83 000 more job positions, and provides a 12.5% higher contribution to GDP. The total output was 8.6% higher in the BIO scenario in comparison with the BASE scenario. All of these analyses were carried out for three selected regions in the country: the traditional region, comprising Sao Paulo and Parana states; the expansion region, including Goias, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states; and the rest of Brazil region. A spillover effect was observed over the total output in the Rest of Brazil region, showing that the impact of the investment over this region was proportionally higher in comparison to the investment done in other in other regions. The Rest of Brazil Region also presents a higher share of the indireect effects over the GDP, jobs created and total output. The final results of this research show the potential of the sugar-energy sector to boost electricity generation, which can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and to preserving the share of renewable sources in the Brazilian electricity matrix and increasing energy security and generation closer to the biggest centers of consumption, mitigating challenges for electricity transmission between subsystems in the National Interconnected System (SIN). (c) 2021 Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.