Time to Blood, Respiratory and Urine Culture Positivity in the Intensive Care Unit: Implications for De-Escalation

Objectives: Concern for late detection of bacterial pathogens is a barrier to early de-escalation efforts. The purpose of this study was to assess blood, respiratory and urine culture results at 72 h to test the hypothesis that early negative culture results have a clinically meaningful negative predictive value. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed all patients admitted to the medical intensive care unit between March 2012 and July 2018 with blood cultures obtained. Blood, respiratory and urine culture results were assessed for time to positivity, defined as the time between culture collection and preliminary species identification. The primary outcome was the negative predictive value of negative blood culture results at 72 h. Secondary outcomes included sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of blood, respiratory and urine culture results. Results: The analysis included 1567 blood, 514 respiratory and 1059 urine cultures. Of the blood, respiratory and urine cultures ultimately positive, 90.3%, 76.2% and 90.4% were positive at 72 h. The negative predictive value of negative 72-h blood, respiratory and urine cultures were 0.99, 0.82 and 0.97, respectively. Antibiotic de-escalation had good specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for finalized negative cultures. Conclusion: Negative blood and urine culture results at 72h had a high negative predictive value. These findings have important ramifications for antimicrobial stewardship efforts and support protocolized re-evaluation of empiric antibiotic therapy at 72 h. Caution should be used in patients with clinically suspected pneumonia, since negative respiratory culture results at 72 h were weakly predictive of finalized negative cultures.