What is driving the remarkable decline of wind and solar power curtailment in China? Evidence from four provinces

Abstract The world’s key renewable power markets are generally challenged by wind and solar power curtailment. Research on the influencing factors of curtailment improvement can provide a reference for the further penetration of renewable energy (RE) into the power system. Based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, this paper analyzes the factors influencing the wind and solar power consumption rate in China from 2015 to 2018, and four typical provinces are discussed in detail. By decomposing the consumption rate into six factors (transmission structure, generation proportion, power self-sufficiency, resource development, resource utilization, and power consumption), and focusing on the transmission structure factors, this paper further clarifies the contributions of local use, ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission, and conventional transmission to the improvement of curtailment. The results reveal the following. (1) At the national level, the power mixing effect and the resource development effect have played major roles in the change of the consumption rate, but the influences of these two effects have been decreasing. (2) The UHV power lines provide a robust resource for the inter-provincial deployment of renewable power (such as the RE power transfer in Inner Mongolia and Gansu), but the role of UHV transmission has not yet been fully utilized. (3) The impact of the electricity consumption effect on renewable power consumption is increasing year by year, but the local consumption capacity remains insufficient (both at the national level and in the four typical provinces analyzed), so it is necessary to further increase the share of renewable electricity in UHV power transmission and the local consumption capacity. (4) The expanding development of wind and solar power may be the reason for the curtailment in Shaanxi, and a reasonable renewable power development plan must be further formulated.