The Effect of Climate Change on Linolenic Fatty Acid in Oilseed Rape

Linolenic acid content plays a significant role in the quality of oilseed rape oil. With the use of a model developed to calculate linolenic acid content depending on temperature, we performed simulations focused on the predicted changes of linolenic acid content triggered by expected climate change. The aim of the study was realized with the use of meteorological data recorded at 16 locations, representing 16 provinces in Poland, in the period of 1986–2005, and values obtained after the transformation of the recorded data to reflect temperature changes in four different representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) according to the gfdl_esm2m climate model. The results of the simulations performed under all tested scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for all analyzed periods (2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079, 2080–2099) indicate a reduction of linolenic acid content as an effect of climate change. The comparison of simulation results obtained with and without allowing for the influence of temperature on oilseed rape development revealed the dominant role of direct influence in modifying the linolenic acid content. An analysis of the results also indicated how indirect influence of climate change, as expressed in changes of linolenic acid content generated by the acceleration of oilseed rape maturation, reduces the direct influence of climate change, expressed in changes of linolenic acid content caused by temperature. Additionally, simulation results point to opportunities, triggered by climate change, for a diversity of regions in terms of linolenic acid content in comparison to the years of 1986–2005.