Analysis of Random Variability in Tortilla Shells Baking

Baking of corn tortilla shells can be considered as a random phenomenon. Dispersion in tortilla shell baking was estimated. The solution to Fick's law of diffusion for transient mass transfer was used as the basis for the deterministic model. A Theoretical Probabilistic model was applied to predict the variability in the moisture content. The mean and standard deviation for initial and equilibrium moisture content, half-thickness, and effective diffusivity were considered as the input random variables. Results given by the Theoretical Probabilistic model were validated with Monte Carlo simulations and experiments. The highest variability in the moisture content (0.0165 kg water/kg d. s.) occurred at 190 s. The mean and standard deviation estimated by the Theoretical Probabilistic model satisfactorily fit those obtained with Monte Carlo (R-2 = 0.9998 and 0.9950) and experiments (R-2 = 0.9998 and 0.9800), for the entire process. A sensitivity analysis indicated equilibrium moisture content (98.53%) caused the greatest dispersion in the final moisture content. This study will allow to suggest baking improvement strategies.