The Dynamic Linkage among Urbanisation, Industrialisation and Carbon Emissions in China: Insights from Spatiotemporal Effect.

Understanding how urbanisation and industrialisation interact with carbon emissions (CEs) among different regions informs the approaches for achieving emissions reduction targets and promoting regional economic development. However, this topic has not been adequately addressed in previous studies. Therefore, it is of great significance to conduct an empirical investigation of the interactions between urbanisation, industrialisation and CEs. Aided by the gravity model, the barycentre trajectories of urbanisation, industrialisation and CEs are analysed. Additionally, the total transfer amounts of industry and CEs are quantitatively examined by using an improved shift-share analysis method, and the spatial aggregation features of urbanisation, industrialisation and CEs are elucidated by constructing a three-dimensional (3D) contribution matrix model. The key conclusions are as follows: (1) The barycentre of industrialisation and urbanisation migrated to the southwest, while that of CE migrated to the northwest and the speed of this movement was faster than that of urbanisation and industrialisation. (2) Industrial transfer mainly occurred in 2005–2012, while the turning point of industrial upgrading appeared in 2013. Furthermore, midwestern regions mainly underwent industrial transfer, while northwest regions always showed CEs transfer from 2005 to 2016. (3) To achieve coordination among urbanisation, industrialisation and emission reductions, 30 provinces are grouped into 8 types according to the 3D contribution matrix model, and optimisation strategies are proposed to highlight regional disparities. These findings have significant implications for making informed decisions regarding urbanisation and industrialisation development as well as emissions-reduction policies.