Prospectives of non-native tree species in Serbia

The majority of non-native forest species, which have been brought to Europe (such as Grand fir, Black locust, Douglas fir, Red oak, Sitka spruce, Red ash, Maple ash) are species with extensive natural distribution ranges. They come from different climatic environments. We analyzed the prospects and challenges for non-native tree species in Serbia according to elements of ecology, silviculture and climate change. We have used the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats approach in combination with analytic hierarchy process. We used preference data from opinion leaders in NNTSs in Serbia who have an intensive knowledge and experience in this area. Results reveal that strengths and treats in all three cases are dominant strategy in NNTSs. The analysis is based on data collected from a survey made throughout Serbia between December 2015 and June 2016. There were 28 respondents dealing with NNTSs in Serbia. Within-group analysis of preferences shows that faster adaptation to changing ecological conditions was the most important strength of NNTSs ecological characteristics with a priority score of 0.075. With a priority score of 0.1 replacements of native species of decreasing health condition was shown to be the major opportunity factor. The most serious weakness, with a factor priority score of 0.05, was invasiveness and possible disappearance of native tree species. The greatest problems of NNTSs in Serbia are: lack of experience in the silviculture of NNTS, non-visibility of the state to NNTSs, and degradation of tree physiological status and susceptibility to pathogens. Strengths are: faster adaptation to changing ecological conditions, good adaptive to local climate and biodiversity richness. In this study, we attempt to assess the effect of ecologic, silviculture and climate changes on NNTSs adoption decisions. We use the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) approach in combination with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to achieve this task.