Estimation of the Final Size of the COVID 19 Epidemic in Balochistan, Pakistan.

COVID-19 is a new disease that is spreading very fast in Pakistan. Cases have been reported from all the provinces in Pakistan including Balochistan. The first two confirmed cases in Pakistan had travel history from Iran to Pakistan, The some of the initial cases were quarantine at Taftan boarder in Balochistan, hence SIR model is used to predict the magnitude of the disease in Balochistan from May 2020 on wards when lock down and other social distancing measures were loosen up by the government of Balochistan. Our Prediction model shows that about 30,00000 individuals in Balochistan will be infected by 5th of July 2020.Over all 25% of the total population of Balochistan will be affected by this disease with 98% (2940,000) recovery rate by the end of 15th July 2020. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement out of pocket ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The PDSRU Balochistan has approved the IRB. All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes primary data