Prognostic Impact of Histologic Grade for Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

While numerous factors affect prognosis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), the comparative impact of histologic grade has not been well described. Moreover, indications for external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) remain imprecise. We evaluate clinicopathologic characteristics and outcomes for PTC stratified by grade. We profiled histologic grade for PTC (well differentiated, moderately differentiated, poorly differentiated) via hospital (National Cancer Database) and population-based (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) registries. Cox regression was used to adjust for clinicopathologic covariates. Statistical interactions between subtypes and the effect of EBRT on survival were assessed. Collectively, worsening clinicopathologic factors (age, tumor size, extrathyroidal extension, nodal spread, M1 disease) and outcomes (disease-free survival, overall survival) correlated with less differentiated state, across all histologic grades (p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis showed escalating hazard with loss of differentiation relative to well-differentiated PTC (moderately differentiated hazard ratio [HR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04–1.41, p = 0.02; poorly differentiated HR 2.62, 95% CI 2.23–3.08, p < 0.001). Correspondingly, greater survival benefit was associated with EBRT for poorly differentiated cases (HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.18–0.72, p = 0.004). This finding was upheld after landmark analysis to address potential immortal time bias (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.80, p = 0.01). Worsening histologic grade in PTC is independently associated with parallel escalation in mortality risk, on a scale approximating or surpassing established thyroid cancer risk factors. On preliminary analysis, EBRT was associated with improved survival in the most aggressive or least differentiated subvariants. Further investigation is warranted to examine the efficacy of EBRT for select poorly differentiated thyroid carcinomas.