Providing Flux Uncertainties in ESA-MASTER: the Accuracy of the 1cm Population

The new ESA MASTER (Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference) model was released on March 19, 2019. MASTER allows for spatial density and flux calculations for arbitrary Earth-bound orbits up to lunar altitude for objects larger than 1 μm. In order to calibrate the underlying discrete LEO population of individual objects larger than 1 cm, dedicated observation campaigns are conducted which yield information on the 1cm debris flux. Based on comprehensive validation procedure and statistical error analysis, the accuracy of the MASTER model can be assessed. Therefore, the most visually changing feature of this new release is the introduction of uncertainty bars which are representing a standard deviation interval for obtained flux and spatial density. The concept behind deriving these uncertainties and their interpretation for the community will be discussed and the applicable validation data will be presented. This paper will give a global but detailed overview of the methods, assumptions, and results of these provided uncertainty indicators. Special attention will be drawn to the available measurement data and the statistical analysis of the “error ratios” which describe factors for the nominal MASTER output to calculate the lower and upper standard deviation interval. Eventually, a quantification of the uncertainties for the 1cm population will be provided.