Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts
MedRxiv(2020)
摘要
Findings
Cases were older than the general population (mean age 45) and balanced between males
(187) and females (204). Ninety-one percent had mild or moderate clinical severity at initial
assessment. Three have died, 225 have recovered (median time to recovery is 32 days). Cases
were isolated on average 4.6 days after developing symptoms; contact tracing reduced this by
1.9 days. Household contacts and those travelling with a case where at higher risk of infection
(ORs 6 and 7) than other close contacts. The household secondary attack rate was 15%, and
children were as likely to be infected as adults. The observed reproductive number was 0.4, with
a mean serial interval of 6.3 days.
Interpretation
Our data on cases as well as their infected and uninfected close contacts provide key insights
into SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology. This work shows that heightened surveillance and isolation,
particularly contact tracing, reduces the time cases are infectious in the community, thereby
reducing R. Its overall impact, however, is uncertain and highly dependent on the number of
asymptomatic cases. We further show that children are at similar risk of infection as the general
population, though less likely to have severe symptoms; hence should be considered in
analyses of transmission and control.
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关键词
shenzhen china,epidemiology
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