Rainfall threshold for initiating effective stress decrease and failure in weathered tephra slopes

Rainfall is one of the most important triggers of slope failure. Weathered pyroclastic (tephra) deposits are especially vulnerable to slope failure because they commonly form slopes of high porosity and high clay content. Empirically derived thresholds for the triggering of landslides are commonly based on rainfall conditions and have been widely applied in volcanic soils. However, so far only few researchers utilized pore water pressure in the slope as additional variable for the threshold calibration. Here, we derived a new rainfall threshold for initiating the decrease in effective stress in the slope by analyzing a long-term record of rainfall and piezometer data from a slide-prone coastal area in northern New Zealand that consists of clayey, halloysitic tephra deposits. The level of effective stress decrease increased with rainfall intensity and duration. We observed highest effective stress decrease of up to 36% during rainfall events that triggered landslides in our study area. The effective stress threshold exhibits a satisfactory predictive capability. The probability of correctly predicting a decrease in effective stress is 53%. The effective stress threshold contributes towards the implementation of the decrease in effective stress into rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of landslides.