Performance of Fetal Medicine Foundation Software for Preeclampsia Prediction upon Marker Customization: Cross Sectional Study (Preprint)

Background: There is a pioneer algorithm developed by Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) to predict pre-eclampsia on the basis of maternal characteristics combined with biophysical and biochemical markers. The Afro-Caribbean ethnicity is the second risk factor, in magnitude, found in populations tested by FMF, which was not confirmed in a Brazilian scenario. Objective: This study aimed to analyze the performance of pre-eclampsia prediction software by customization of maternal ethnicity. Methods: It was a cross-sectional observational study, with secondary evaluation of data from FMF first trimester screening tests of singleton pregnancies. Risk scores were calculated from maternal characteristics and biophysical markers, and they were presented as the risk for early pre-eclampsia (PE34) and preterm pre-eclampsia (PE37). The following steps were followed: (1) identification of women characterized as black ethnicity; (2) calculation of early and preterm pre-eclampsia risk, reclassifying them as white, which generated a new score; (3) comparison of the proportions of women categorized as high risk between the original and new scores; (4) construction of the receiver operator characteristic curve; (5) calculation of the area under the curve, sensitivity, and false positive rate; and (6) comparison of the area under the curve, sensitivity, and false positive rate of the original with the new risk by chi-square test. Results: A total of 1531 cases were included in the final sample, with 219 out of 1531 cases (14.30; 95% CI 12.5-16.0) and 182 out of 1531 cases (11.88%; 95% CI 10.3-13.5) classified as high risk for pre-eclampsia development, originally and after recalculating the new risk, respectively. The comparison of FMF2012 predictive model performance between the originally estimated risks and the estimated new risks showed that the difference was not significant for sensitivity and area under the curve, but it was significant for false positive rate. Conclusions: We concluded that black ethnicity classification of Brazilian pregnant women by FMF2012 algorithm increases the false positive rate. Suppressing ethnicity effect did not improve the test sensitivity. By modifying demographic characteristics, it is possible to improve some performance aspects of clinical prediction tests.