Development and Validation of a New Risk Prediction Score for Life-Threatening Ventricular Tachyarrhythmias in Laminopathies.

BACKGROUND An accurate estimation of the risk of life-threatening (LT) ventricular tachyarrhythmia (VTA) in patients with LMNA mutations is crucial to select candidates for implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation. METHODS We included 839 adult patients with LMNA mutations, including 660 from a French nationwide registry in the development sample, and 179 from other countries, referred to 5 tertiary centers for cardiomyopathies, in the validation sample. LTVTA was defined as a) sudden cardiac death or b) ICD-treated or hemodynamically unstable VTA. The prognostic model was derived using Fine-Gray's regression model. The net reclassification was compared with current clinical practice guidelines. The results are presented as means (standard deviation) or medians [interquartile range]. RESULTS We included 444 patients 40.6 (14.1) years of age in the derivation sample and 145 patients 38.2 (15.0) years in the validation sample, of whom 86 (19.3%) and 34 (23.4%) suffered LTVTA over 3.6 [1.0-7.2] and 5.1 [2.0-9.3] years of follow-up, respectively. Predictors of LTVTA in the derivation sample were: male sex, non-missense LMNA mutation, 1st degree and higher atrioventricular block, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and left ventricular ejection fraction. In the derivation sample, C-index (95% CI) of the model was 0.776 (0.711-0.842) and calibration slope 0.827. In the external validation sample, the C-index was 0.800 (0.642-0.959) and calibration slope 1.082 (95% CI, 0.643-1.522). A 5-year estimated risk threshold ≥7% predicted 96.2% of LTVTA and net reclassified 28.8% of patients with LTVTA compared with the guidelines-based approach. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the current standard of care, this risk prediction model for LTVTA in laminopathies facilitated significantly the choice of ICD candidates. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique Identifier: NCT03058185.