The Economic-Environmental Impacts Of China'S Action Plan For Soil Pollution Control

To effectively control soil pollution, an action plan (called Soil Plan) was carried out by Chinese government in 2016, which may cost CNY 1.14 trillion during the 2016-2020 period. To evaluate the potential impacts of this action plan on the national economy and environmental control, this study employed a closed macro input-output model to quantitatively account for the economic and environmental impacts from the view of the whole domestic supply chain. Our results show that the implementation of the Soil Plan may stimulate economic development and bring more jobs. It will help generate a gross domestic product (GDP) of CNY 2.72 trillion, with CNY 358.11 billion (15%) made from direct contributions, and CNY 2.36 trillion (85%) from indirect contributions. Meanwhile, the scheme could also produce 2 million jobs within five years, of which 580,000 (29%) are a direct contribution, and 1.42 million (71%) are an indirect contribution. On the other hands, increased demands for products and services of various sectors (such as power/heat production and supply, and chemical products) would also cause more air and water pollutants along with domestic supply chains. The emissions of sulfur dioxide(SO2), nitrogen oxide(NOx), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia nitrogen(NH3-N) would increase by a total of 5.20 x 10(5) t, 5.27 x 10(5) t, 1.62 x 10(5) t and 9.36 x 10(3) t, respectively. Our results may raise the concern about the indirect impacts of an environmental policy for the policy maker from both economic and environmental perspectives.