Modeling impacts of mulching and climate change on crop production and N2O emission in the Loess Plateau of China

•DNDC modeled wheat and maize yields and N2O emission well under different mulching.•Future climate may increase crop yield under no-mulching or straw mulching.•Future climate may reduce the positive impacts of plastic mulching on crop yield.•DNDC predicted increased N2O emissions under future climate change scenarios.•Straw mulching is the optimum mulching management under future climate scenarios.