ECONOMIC IMPACT OF GENERIC ANTIRETROVIRALS IN FRANCE FOR HIV PATIENT'S CARE: A SIMULATION BETWEEN 2018 AND 2022

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of generics antiretrovirals (ARV) on the French market between 2018 and 2022 according to several scenarios A Budget Impact Analysis (BIA) was conducted from the French Social Healthcare Insurance perspective. Direct medical costs were included (i.e. branded and generic ARV costs). This BIA was implemented using an individual centered simulation model. This simulation approach characterized each patient by several covariates based on data collected on Dat’AIDS database, literature and expert opinions. Dat’AIDS database is constituted in real time by the computerized medical file Nadis® used by French services taking care of the HIV patients in France. The behavior of each individual will then be simulated using models of disease progression under different assumptions on the transition to generics. Transition probabilities were estimated according to patient’s covariates from logistics models. Deterministic sensitivity analyses on relevant parameters (e.g. penetration rate, date of market launch of generics, generics tariffs) were performed. Preliminary results are available on the 120 582 French patients under treatment. The impact of generics ARV from 2018 to 2022 would lead to savings of 1.01 billion € according to the base case analysis (i.e. penetration rate equal to 0.7). This correspond to around 1,500€ saved by patients annually. According to the sensitivity analysis, including the variation of the maximum penetration rate from 0.1 to 0.9, economic savings vary from 201 million € to 1.20 billion €. Sensitivity analyses on generisc tariffs and on date of market launch of generics are in process. The results of our study suggest economic savings from 201 million€ to 1.20 billion€. This results would allow decision-makers to be able to anticipate their reflection on areas in which these potential savings could be reinjected and allow the prioritization of future actions in public health.