Bayesian estimates for the mapping of dengue hotspots and estimation of the risk of disease epidemic in Northeast Brazil

•Dengue hotspots are present in several areas of the Brazilian Northeast.•Most municipalities registered epidemic or pre-epidemic rates in 2002 and 2014.•The North and South of the Semi-arid are among the areas with higher dengue rates.•Water storage contributes to the spread of dengue in areas of rainfall.•There is a greater risk of dengue epidemic in areas when House Index is higher.