Spatial Analysis on Carbon Emission Abatement Capacity at Provincial Level in China from 1997 to 2014: an Empirical Study Based on SDM Model

Currently, the increasing carbon emissions accompanied with rapid urbanization and industrial development is the central environmental problem in China. In this paper, the carbon emission abatement index (CACI) consisting of equal weighted efficiency and equity indexes is employed to figure out the allocation of carbon emission mitigation quotient when the inclination and capacity in each province are all taken into consideration. Then, the novel spatial panel data model combined with economic weight matrix is used to estimate the spatial dependence of the carbon emission reduction potential at the provincial level. Moreover, the driving forces are examined. The result suggests that the provinces with low marginal cost and per capita carbon emissions should take on more burdens regarding carbon emission reduction (e.g. Ningxia, Shanghai, Shanxi, Qinghai and Tianjin), while the provinces with low economic development and carbon intensity can be allocated relatively less loads (e.g. Sichuan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Anhui and Hunan). Furthermore, the capacity of carbon emission mitigation is negatively affected by urbanization and positively affected by per capita GDP, population density and energy intensity. The coefficients of economic development and energy utilization efficiency are also statistically significant, and indicates mutual effects among regions.