The Evolution and Future of Scientific Communication: American Surgical Association Presidential Address

W e live in interesting times. Technological change is occurring so rapidly and with such profound impact that it is a major challenge for us to maintain currency in our profession. One area undergoing a revolutionary transformation is scientific publishing. New tools, structures, and relationships are emerging. The paperbased, peer-reviewed, subscription standard of scientific publishing is contracting, and the digital, open-access, community-reviewed model is developing at a phenomenal pace. Although the rapidity of change that we are presently experiencing is unprecedented, technological evolution in scientific communication has a long history. Human beings have likely been communicating their observations of nature since our ancestors first emerged from Africa a million or so years ago. Long before writing was invented or became commonly used, these thoughts were passed down the generations by means of an oral tradition. Permanency of the record was finally attained when observations were etched onto clay or stone tablets about 5000 years ago. Papyrus, made from a plant that grew along the Nile River, was the paper of the ancient world. It could be formed into rolls for ease of storage and transport. The reading of papyrus scrolls likely reached its peak in Imperial Rome.1 In this city of approximately 1,000,000 inhabitants, the literacy level was about 10%, a sufficient number of people to make reading a popular past time. Copies of scrolls were laboriously made by slaves and frequently contained many errors. Because of the effort required to produce a single copy, reading material was very expensive, a high-quality scroll costing as many denarii as was required for basic subsistence for a family of 4 for a year. Although compiling one’s library necessitated the expenditure of a small fortune, anyone who could read was free to review manuscripts in one of the many scroll shops or listen to readings by authors who were anxious to sell their wares. What we all might recognize as a book first appeared in the fifth century, but this important means of communication did not replace papyrus rolls until much later. Each book was unique as written until copies were painstakingly made, usually by monks in monasteries. The limited number of copies was not the disadvantage we would consider it today because only a small percentage of the population in medieval Europe could read. To preserve room on the paper that was produced by an expensive and laborious process at the time, spacing between words did not become commonplace until the 12th century.2 With the rise of universities in Europe in the 13th century, there was an increase in demand for books. This roughly coincided with a wider spread of literacy among the populace. The mass production of books was made possible by Johannes Gutenberg in 1450 when he invented the printing press. This represented a paradigm shift similar