UNITED KINGDOM: NEW FORECAST OF SOFTWOOD AVAILABILITY

The 2005 forecast for the FC Estate has been refined to represent the expanding range of silvicultural practices and the increasing adoption of formalised multi-objective Forest Design Plans. The complementary forecast for the Private Sector has been developed in co-operation with CONFOR and representatives of other growers and processors in the Private Sector, who have advised on recent and likely future management and production trends in private woodlands. Overall Wood Supply This new softwood availability forecast covers the whole of the United Kingdom for the period 2006 - 2026. It should be noted that forecast data presented in this article have been arrived at through separate processes, and therefore represent different types of estimate. Detail regarding the Forestry Commission Estate forecast and the GB Private Sector can be found in this article. The Forest Service Northern Ireland has compiled the softwood availability forecast for its estate from production forecasting information based on inventory plots and felling coupe areas. These Northern Ireland volumes represent an estimate of availability but include areas where current management planning may defer harvesting for economic, social or environmental reasons. The Forest Service has estimated Northern Ireland private sector softwood availability from private woodlands data. As in previous forecasts, all annual volumes include 'thinning plus felling', and are presented as cubic metres overbark standing. In line with the 2000 published forecast, Table 1 shows the total amount of material available to a stated top diameter. Average annual softwood availability, as illustrated in Figure 1, is set to rise from approximately 12 million cubic metres per year in the period 2007-2011 to 14.6 million in 2017-21. The fourth period of this forecast shows a small reduction to 14.2 million. Preliminary results show that the total volume will continue to decrease.