Projected Changes in Population Exposure to Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Africa under the Global Warming Levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C: Insights from CMIP6 Simulations

Assessing the impacts of limiting the Global Warming Level (GWL) of 1.5–2 °C is crucial for strengthening adaptation to climate change in Central Africa. This study uses an ensemble-mean of the state-of-the-art global climate models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) initiative, to appraise changes in extreme precipitation events and population exposure risks under these GWL thresholds. To accomplish that, we consider extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices to capture the response of future changes in mean, duration and intense precipitation, under an additional increased warming of 0.5 °C following two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Furthermore, the projected population datasets over the 21st century under the SSPs scenarios are also incorporated. The results reveal that for an additional increased warming of 0.5 °C, the dry spells duration would significantly increase by up to 10