Spatial and temporal analysis on the impact of ultra-low volume indoor insecticide spraying on Aedes aegypti household density

Aedes aegypti is the primary mosquito vector for several arboviruses, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, which cause frequent outbreaks of human disease in tropical and subtropical regions. Control of these outbreaks relies on vector control, commonly in the form of insecticide sprays that target adult female mosquitoes. However, the spatial coverage and frequency of sprays needed to optimize effectiveness are unclear. In this study, we characterize the effect of ultra-low-volume (ULV) indoor spraying of pyrethroid insecticides on Ae. aegypti abundance within households. We also evaluate the effects of spray events during recent time periods or in neighboring households. Improved understanding of the duration and distance of the impact of a spray intervention on Ae. aegypti populations can inform vector control interventions, in addition to modeling efforts that contrast vector control strategies. This project analyzes data from two large-scale experiments that involved six cycles of indoor pyrethroid spray applications in 2 years in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We developed spatial multi-level models to disentangle the reduction in Ae. aegypti abundance that resulted from (i) recent ULV treatment within households and (ii) ULV treatment of adjacent or nearby households. We compared fits of models across a range of candidate weighting schemes for the spray effect, based on different temporal and spatial decay functions to understand lagged ULV effects. Our results suggested that the reduction of Ae. aegypti in a household was mainly due to spray events occurring within the same household, with no additional effect of sprays that occurred in neighboring households. Effectiveness of a spray intervention should be measured based on time since the most recent spray event, as we found no cumulative effect of sequential sprays. Based on our model, we estimated the spray effect is reduced by 50