Exploring a pathway to optimise the carbon tax policy in terms of the economy, the environment and health: A scenario-based system dynamics approach

The carbon tax, a pivotal policy instrument in tackling climate change, holds the potential to significantly influence the development of society. To comprehensively analyse the effectiveness of the policy on carbon taxation and explore its possible optimisation path, this study utilizes system dynamics theory to establish a simulation model. A detailed analysis and evaluation of this policy is then conducted from the perspectives of the economy, the environment, and health. To guarantee the precision of the simulation model, a new, comprehensive evaluation method is proposed, which can test the degree of fit of the relative trend and absolute data of the simulation model with reality. The findings reveal that, despite its negative economic implications, a carbon tax policy has positive ramifications for the environment, energy, health, industrial structure, and carbon intensity targets. Furthermore, the synergistic reinforcement effect of R&D and new energy support policies on carbon taxation surpasses the impact of any individual policy alone. Notably, the influence of auxiliary policies has a temporal difference on this policy. Based on these insights, the study concludes with practical policy recommendations.