An Analytical Method for Timely Predicting of Coal Seam Pressure During Gas Production for Undersaturated Coalbed Methane Reservoirs

Coal seam pressure is an important parameter for production performance evaluation and prediction of coalbed methane (CBM). CBM production from undersaturated CBM reservoirs can be divided into two stages according to critical desorption pressure. At present, few prediction models of coal seam pressure performance consider the comprehensive influence of critical desorption pressure, dissolved gas, matrix shrinkage, and stress sensitivity. For the purpose of accurately predicting coal seam pressure during gas production for an undersaturated coalbed methane reservoir, the material balance principle is used to establish the analytical method for predicting coal seam pressure, considering the comprehensive influence of the critical desorption pressure, dissolved gas, matrix shrinkage, and stress sensitivity. Then, the proposed method is verified against a numerical simulation case using a computer modelling group (CMG) and two actual coalbed methane wells. Finally, the sensitivities of influencing factors on the coal seam pressure are analyzed. The results show that good agreements were obtained between the calculated coal seam pressures using the proposed method and those from the CMG-GEM simulation case and actual CBM wells, with the relative errors all being less than 1%. When ignoring the influence of critical desorption pressure and mistaking pd for pi as well as ignoring Cs, the relative error can reach as high as 31.3%. The main factors affecting the coal seam pressure are the critical desorption pressure and free gas saturation. The proposed method is simple to use, and without shutting-in the well, it can provide an important basis for production performance evaluation and development strategies.